Posibles cambios en el rango de distribución de Tapirus pinchaque bajo escenarios de cambio climático
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Abstract
Tapirus pinchaque, es una especie clave e ícono en la conservación de la riqueza biológica en los Andes tropicales. Se evaluó el efecto del cambio climático y su incidencia en la estabilidad, pérdida y ganancia de áreas de adecuación climática para T. pinchaque en su rango de distribución. Adicionalmente, se evaluó la efectividad del Sistema Nacional de Áreas Protegidas de Ecuador (SNAP) actual en la conservación de la especie a futuro. Se utilizaron modelos de distribución y algoritmos de aprendizaje supervisado y combinando sus resultados para generar mapas consenso. Los resultados bajo las condiciones actuales predicen que el área adecuada para la distribución de T. pinchaque abarcará un total de 62.714 km², extendiéndose desde el norte de Colombia hasta el sur de Perú. Se determinó que, en la actualidad 39,4% del área total, corresponde al SNAP. Por otra parte, los diferentes modelos a futuro sobre cambio climático, predicen reducciones de áreas de adecuación de hasta 70,24% en su distribución total, mientras que dentro del SNAP se reportan reducciones para el 2050 de hasta 71,84%. Finalmente, los modelos presentados facilitan información clave para la toma de decisiones y desarrollo de políticas públicas orientadas al diseño de nuevas estrategias para la conservación del T. pinchaque en los Andes tropicales.